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Sign in or register for an accountA growing population can be a sign of a vibrant economy and desirable area to live. There are many factors that can affect the size and make up of an area’s population including the cost and availability of housing, a strong employment market and good infrastructure. Changes seen in a local area can be affected by international factors as well as movement between different parts of the country. Available housing is a limiting factor on population growth as, without new housing, growth comes at the expense of overcrowding.
The population of an area can change in different ways, each with different causes and different impacts. It can change in size, in age structure or in who forms that population. The components of these changes can be split into two main categories; natural change and population movement. Natural change describes the number of births and deaths in a given time period. Population movement includes migration, either between the local area and other parts of the country, or between the local area and overseas. Movement within a local area also matters.
Local government needs to plan for the impact of population change. This impact will depend on how the population is changing. It may result in increased demand for services including schools, social care or health services. It affects housing costs and rents, overcrowding and homelessness. Housing availability can be a driver of population change as well as a consequence of it. There could be impacts on infrastructure including traffic and public transport or pressure on land availability. Conversely a falling population may be due to a lack of opportunity, a falling birth rate, or a lack of affordability. Many of the factors do not operate in isolation.
A high level population churn, with many people moving in and out of an area, can occur without the overall size of the population changing. This can be seen in areas with large student populations.
Salford has one of the fastest growing populations of any local authority in the country. Following decades of falling population through much of the 20th century, since 2001 Salford has seen a growth from 217,000 residents to 294,00 by 2024. Much of the growth has been in those aged 20 to 39 years old, a population that is 45,000 (72%) bigger than in 2001. In the same period the 0-19 year old population grew 28%, 40-64 year olds 22% and over 65s just 5%.
Most ages have seen a population increase in the last decade, with the biggest rise in those in their 20s and 30s.
[Download data chart 2024 compared to 2014 (csv format, 3kb)]
For more detail we have produced a dashboard showing the Salford population and the components of change since 2001.
Since 2001 the age range with the biggest growth has been 23 to 28 year olds, more than doubling from 17,000 to 37,000. Over the last decade, the broader age band covering those aged 24 to 39 years has seen growth of 44%, from 62,000 to 89,000. There has also been a notable rise in the number of children aged 10-14 years old (up 42%) in the last decade. Few age groups saw a fall in population in the last decade, with the exceptions being those aged 45-54 years, down 6%, 65 to 69 years, down 4% and those aged over 90 years, down 11%. Some of these changes are due to demographic bulges, such as the post-war baby boom, moving through the age bands.
The areas of Salford with the biggest population increases are in the east of the city, particularly the corridor from Salford Quays up to Broughton. The map below shows ward level changes. The boundaries shown were introduced in local elections held in May 2021 having been redrawn as a consequence of population change. As such, the growth shown is for the areas of the city included in the current boundaries, rather than the ward boundaries in place in the past.
The population of each of Salford’s wards has grown over the last decade with some more than doubling in size, they now vary from 12,100 to 19,600 residents.
[Download data map (csv format, 3kb)]
For more detail we have produced a dashboard showing the ward level population for Salford since 2011.
There has been little change in the number of births seen in Salford, which has remained around 3,500 for over a decade. Since 2013 the total fertility rate (TRF), which is the average number of births per woman, in Salford has fallen from 1.90 to 1.33. This falling rate has been balanced out by the rising population, so more women each having fewer births has resulted in a stable number of births. Projection data suggests a rise in births peaking in the early 2040s at around 4,500 per year.
Deaths in Salford saw a peak at 2,647 in 2020 during the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. It has since fallen back to around 2,300. After accounting for age, the mortality rate is Salford is higher than national or regional comparisons.
Migration has been the biggest driver of population change locally. Far more people move into Salford from other parts of the country (27,900 people in 2024) than from overseas (8,000 people in 2024). When people leave Salford, they also tend to move to other parts of the country (27,300 people in 2024) than overseas (2,600 people in 2024). The differences result in a higher net international migration figure, but higher levels of population churn for migration from within the UK (internal migration).
The peak age for inward migration is 19 years old, which is in part due to students moving for education. For outward migration the peak age is 24 years old. Unsurprisingly, the flow is greatest between Salford and neighbouring areas, particularly Manchester.
The age dependency ratio (the number of people aged either under 15 or over 65 for every 100 residents aged 15 to 64 years old) for Salford fell from 54 in 2001 to 48 by 2011 and 45 in 2024, whilst the national figure is currently 56, the same as it was in 2001. This matters as different age groups have different needs, as well as contributing to society and consuming resources in different ways.
Population projections published by the ONS suggest the growth trend will continue but begin to slow. These projections assume recent trends will continue, which is not a certainty. More detailed figures for a range of scenarios can be found in this dashboard.
Salford’s growth has been part of a deliberate strategy to attract people and employment to the city, including four strategic growth locations and new and improved infrastructure. Salford’s development plan includes the Salford Local Plan and the Greater Manchester joint development plan, Places for Everyone. These set out the central idea for sustainable development of delivering economic, social and environmental benefits.
Regeneration brings the opportunity to develop healthier places, including designing for good transport, high quality greenspace and the right services in the right place. Getting the right infrastructure enables sustainable development and manageable growth.
It is important to understand and measure local trends in population growth and demographic change and the factors driving the changes. These trends allow organisations to anticipate future need and address the consequences.