Pupil place projections for the city show a decrease in the expected number of children who will be due to start school in Reception. This is not only a city-wide issue but a national issue, with primary schools reporting a decline in demand for places across the whole country. With less children starting school this will leave schools with unfilled places. This can have a significant financial impact on a school.
Following discussions with school and their governing board, it is proposed to reduce the published admission number at the following school:
The change in published admission number would be effective from the September 2027 reception intake. For children who have a place at the school in other year groups there will be no change.
This is the only change to the admission arrangements for this school, and all other elements remain unchanged. We are only seeking views on the reduction in published admission number.
Why is this consultation happening?
In line with the national picture, Salford’s pupil forecast data shows a decrease in the number of children requiring a reception age place year on year.
Whilst the projected reduction in demand is not affecting the whole city, there are individual areas where data shows that this could leave individual schools carrying high levels of surplus capacity. Whilst Local Authorities aim to carry low levels of surplus in order to manage any further in year demand, unacceptable high levels can have a detrimental impact on school budgets.
What is the reason for proposing a reduction in Public Admission Number (PAN)?
Pupil forecast show that there are fewer children living within this planning area that will require a reception aged place over the next four years (2024-2029). In order to manage this it is proposed that Godfrey Ermen Memorial CE Primary School will reduce their published admission number from 60 to 45 with effect from September 2027.
This will reduce the risk of the school having to run a number of smaller classes, which would be costly due to the number of teaching/ support staff that would be required. It will also assist the school and provide stability in the long-term planning, allowing Godfrey Ermen Memorial CE Primary School to deliver high quality education and outcomes.
When will a reduction in PAN be applied and will it be across all other year groups?
The proposed reduction in PAN will be applied initially across the reception year intake from September 2027 and will gradually feed through the school year on year until all year groups have a PAN of 45. For children who already have a place at the school in other year groups there will be no change in the admission number.
Will there be a reduction in school staff and how will this be managed?
Any reduction in staff will be a gradual process to ensure sufficient staffing structures are in place for the number of pupils and classes.
Will there still be enough school places available to meet the needs of the local community?
Using pupil forecast data, the Local Authority has calculated how many reception places are required to meet projected demand going forward. In addition to meeting demand, the Local Authority will ensure a level of suitable capacity remains in place to support any further in year demand that may arise.
Has any further demand that could come from new housing developments been taken into consideration when considering the proposals?
The Local Authority works closely with planners so we can understand the size of new developments and timeframes for delivery. As part of this and to manage the demand risk, a pupil yield calculation is used to calculate the number of additional pupils that may come from new housing developments.
The timing around when a new housing development may generate additional children or the age of the child is very difficult to say with any certainty. As such and in order to manage the risk the Local Authority monitors closely all areas of the city to capture any changes in a timely manner.
What happens if pupil demand begins to rise?
Demand for school places does change over time. As such, all Local Authorities are required to produce pupil forecasts on an annual basis to ensure any changes in demand are identified as early as possible.
If demand for places begins to rise, resulting in the need for additional places, the Local Authority would create additional capacity, initially in the form of ‘bulge classes’, which will see the PAN for a particular year group increase.
This can be achieved very quickly in agreement with the Headteacher and Governing Body. Or in agreement with the relevant Multi Academy Trust and Diocesan Board, where this applies.
Should pupil forecasts begin to show a continuous increase in demand that would require additional places year on year, then the decision would be taken to proceed with a permanent increase in PAN.